Exchange Rates and their Impact on the Stock Market5 min read

Exchange Rates and their Impact on the Stock Market

What are exchange rates and how they are determined

Exchange rates or valuation of a nation’s currency in terms of other nation’s currency is a key determinant in calculating and setting import and export trade volume and prices. These exchange rates change on daily basis depending upon depreciation or appreciation of an economy’s currency when compared to others. Explaining the crux is like defining how many rupees denominations will be required to buy one dollar U.S denomination.

The important factors that impact the exchange rate determinations include government policies, trade volumes, global economic trends, announcements and crisp news that have a tendency to move the goods trading at large. The exchange rates are the results of the foreign exchange market, a marketplace where currencies are traded for one another depending upon each economy’s goods and service exchange with the compared economy and also largely impacted by top-performing currencies in the Forex.

The trade-in forex determines free-floating rates that in turn change the prices of different commodities at the international level causing fluctuation in the export and import of a country. This change in export and import is largely impacting the budget surplus of any government and hence ruling over all the further policy measures as well as the monetary system. We know that as the goods market is disturbed, it perfectly negotiates the differences in dynamic equity markets depending upon which segment of goods has been impacted pf that particular country.

How exchange rates affect the stock market

The main two types of exchange rates are fixed and floating. Fixed exchange rates are less dynamic and therefore ensure less variability of uncertainty and making the impact on stock markets less. On the other hand, floating exchange rates are highly volatile and therefore crates high uncertainties in stock as well.

The bigger frame will take you to the bracket of interest rates in the market. We know how currency valuation impacts interest rates in any economy and of course stock markets again face the consequences of interest rates knowing the fact the businesses listed on stock works on credits as well. Impacting the profits of companies means impacting the portfolios for investors and ultimately volatile decisions.

Not only this but as interest rates impact money demand in the economy, if the currency losses its value at exchanges frequently, but the investors will also duplicate the effect and enter equity or asset markets to use the money.

Knowing the value of a home currency in relation to different foreign currencies helps investors to analyze assets priced in foreign dollars. For example, for an Indian investor, knowing the dollar to the Rupee exchange rate is valuable when selecting American investments. A declining U.S. dollar could increase the value of foreign investments just as an increasing U.S. dollar value could hurt the value of previous investments made or change the decision for future investments.

The market value of firms can be significantly affected by the health of the national currency. It suggests that when a country’s currency is weakened, its exported goods become cheaper internationally, which can help to fuel growth and lead to a potential increase in profits for companies whose earnings are export-based.

Case study

For example, let’s say Country A ad Country B are two economies with bilateral trade systems with each other and country A is a producer of medicines and purchases raw material from B. we suppose that exchange rates increased implying that now the currency of A is more needed for an extra currency B, this means a trader of country A would need more of currency B  to get raw material for medicines from country B. Thus for the buyer of raw material (country A), the commodity is now expensive and therefore the cost of production rises making the pharma sector imbalanced as a whole. This change in the pharma segment will impact the stocks of the same sector largely at stock markets. The investor dynamics can be behavioural depending upon how the sector is expected to respond to the high cost, by cutting employment or by rising prices. At a bigger frame, global stock markets will be affected because firstly the foreign stock traders will seek analytics to invest in the A’s exchange or B’s stock exchange which will impact the stock trading volumes.

Now let us diversify to understand better, introducing country C, which purchases final medicines from country A. In this trade scenario we know that prices of medicines as final goods will rise giving the first turn in trade, the next part is the exchange rate depending upon both A’s and C’s valuation will further affect the export-import prices overall impacting trade for retail market of medicines in country C. Now here comes the stock market of country C, now we are familiar that on average the pharma sector stock will be changing here also, therefore, showing the implication that change in exchange rates surely impacts the global stock market positions in real senses. Apart from a simple example, the economies are dynamic and wide so the real impact on tocks will be highly dynamic due to exchange rates and investor sentiments.

This was a theoretical explanation for a general point of understanding further putting numbers into this will indicate how complex changes take place due to exchange rates in the stock market and can be important or determining high gains or losses into investors pockets.


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